Green Bay

Conference:	Horz
Expected RPI:	303.0
Current RPI:	303
Expected SOS:	307
Current SOS:	307
Current Record:	10-20
Expected Record:	10-20
Current Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Conf Record:	8-12
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-5
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	2-5
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	8-9
Current OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC Record:	2-8
Expected OOC RPI:	332
Expected OOC SOS:	278

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
10-20	303.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Green Bay.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-14	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	A	85-65	L	0%
11-20	Mississippi St. (73.0)	SEC	A	77-68	L	0%
11-24	Florida A&M (332.0)	MEAC	H	57-50	W	100%
11-27	Stetson (325.0)	ASun	H	71-83	L	0%
12-2	Belmont (81.0)	OVC	A	86-75	L	0%
12-6	Eastern Illinois (262.0)	OVC	H	59-57	W	100%
12-9	Missouri (43.0)	SEC	A	100-77	L	0%
12-12	Indiana St. (184.0)	MVC	A	85-63	L	0%
12-21	Bowling Green (193.0)	MAC	H	78-81	L	0%
12-23	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	A	81-60	L	0%
12-28	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	H	95-83	W	100%
12-30	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	H	80-79	W	100%
1-2	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	H	63-67	L	0%
1-4	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	A	80-79	L	0%
1-6	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	A	85-74	L	0%
1-10	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	A	84-73	L	0%
1-12	IUPUI (294.0)	Horz	A	67-61	L	0%
1-15	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	H	99-92	W	100%
1-18	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	H	67-80	L	0%
1-20	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	H	65-77	L	0%
1-25	Cleveland St. (282.0)	Horz	H	66-44	W	100%
1-27	Youngstown St. (329.0)	Horz	H	85-67	W	100%
2-2	Milwaukee (231.0)	Horz	A	76-58	L	0%
2-8	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	A	68-64	L	0%
2-10	Northern Kentucky (115.0)	Horz	A	86-80	L	0%
2-16	Illinois Chicago (236.0)	Horz	H	75-83	L	0%
2-22	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	90-96	W	100%
2-24	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	A	97-107	W	100%
3-2	Detroit (318.0)	Horz	N	81-93	W	100%
3-3	Wright St. (99.0)	Horz	N	87-72	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Green Bay's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Green Bay's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Green Bay.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Green Bay	Horz	26.52	26.52	31.75	31.75	-9.68	-9.68
Wright St.	Horz	6.03	6.03	68.97	68.97	2.29	2.29
Detroit	Horz	5.92	5.92	22.22	22.22	-3.29	-3.29
Cleveland St.	Horz	4.56	4.56	31.25	31.25	-1.71	-1.71
Milwaukee	Horz	4.52	4.52	48.28	48.28	-0.16	-0.16
Oakland	Horz	4.43	4.43	61.29	61.29	1.00	1.00
Illinois Chicago	Horz	4.39	4.39	46.43	46.43	-0.31	-0.31
IUPUI	Horz	4.38	4.38	26.92	26.92	-2.02	-2.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	4.36	4.36	17.86	17.86	-2.80	-2.80
Northern Kentucky	Horz	4.35	4.35	66.67	66.67	1.45	1.45
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.83	1.83	34.48	34.48	-0.57	-0.57
Belmont	OVC	1.78	1.78	71.88	71.88	0.78	0.78
Eastern Illinois	OVC	1.78	1.78	35.71	35.71	-0.51	-0.51
Mississippi St.	SEC	1.75	1.75	64.52	64.52	0.51	0.51
Bowling Green	MAC	1.72	1.72	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Wisconsin	B10	1.72	1.72	43.75	43.75	-0.22	-0.22
Missouri	SEC	1.72	1.72	60.00	60.00	0.34	0.34
Florida A&M	MEAC	1.69	1.69	25.00	25.00	-0.85	-0.85
Indiana St.	MVC	1.67	1.67	35.71	35.71	-0.48	-0.48
Stetson	ASun	1.67	1.67	25.93	25.93	-0.80	-0.80
Toledo	MAC	0.34	0.34	66.67	66.67	0.11	0.11
Western Michigan	MAC	0.32	0.32	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Murray St.	OVC	0.29	0.29	82.76	82.76	0.19	0.19
Kent St.	MAC	0.29	0.29	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.24	0.24	84.38	84.38	0.17	0.17
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.22	0.22	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.21	0.21	58.62	58.62	0.04	0.04
East Tennessee St.	SC	0.20	0.20	71.88	71.88	0.09	0.09
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.20	0.20	30.00	30.00	-0.08	-0.08
Ball St.	MAC	0.20	0.20	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Morehead St.	OVC	0.20	0.20	22.22	22.22	-0.11	-0.11
Jacksonville	ASun	0.19	0.19	37.93	37.93	-0.05	-0.05
Miami OH	MAC	0.19	0.19	45.16	45.16	-0.02	-0.02
Michigan St.	B10	0.18	0.18	87.88	87.88	0.13	0.13
Western Illinois	Sum	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.16	0.16	69.70	69.70	0.06	0.06
Bradley	MVC	0.15	0.15	59.38	59.38	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Lipscomb	ASun	0.14	0.14	68.97	68.97	0.05	0.05
North Florida	ASun	0.14	0.14	36.67	36.67	-0.04	-0.04
Texas A&M	SEC	0.14	0.14	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Austin Peay	OVC	0.14	0.14	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.14	0.14	31.03	31.03	-0.05	-0.05
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Missouri St.	MVC	0.14	0.14	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Kentucky	SEC	0.14	0.14	70.59	70.59	0.06	0.06
Akron	MAC	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Ohio	MAC	0.11	0.11	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Central Michigan	MAC	0.11	0.11	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
DePaul	BE	0.11	0.11	35.48	35.48	-0.03	-0.03
Purdue	B10	0.11	0.11	82.35	82.35	0.07	0.07
Indiana	B10	0.11	0.11	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.11	0.11	10.71	10.71	-0.09	-0.09
Michigan	B10	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.06	0.06
Seattle	WAC	0.11	0.11	56.67	56.67	0.01	0.01
UCLA	P12	0.11	0.11	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.11	0.11	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.11	0.11	6.67	6.67	-0.09	-0.09
Mississippi	SEC	0.11	0.11	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.11	0.11	62.50	62.50	0.03	0.03
Vanderbilt	SEC	0.10	0.10	37.50	37.50	-0.03	-0.03
Chicago St.	WAC	0.10	0.10	3.33	3.33	-0.10	-0.10
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Florida Gulf Coast	ASun	0.09	0.09	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
USC Upstate	ASun	0.09	0.09	10.71	10.71	-0.07	-0.07
Evansville	MVC	0.09	0.09	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
FIU	CUSA	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Elon	CAA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Marquette	BE	0.08	0.08	59.38	59.38	0.02	0.02
Auburn	SEC	0.08	0.08	78.12	78.12	0.05	0.05
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.08	0.08	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.08	0.08	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.08	0.08	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Arkansas	SEC	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Georgia	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Alabama	SEC	0.08	0.08	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
LSU	SEC	0.08	0.08	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
South Carolina	SEC	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee	SEC	0.08	0.08	75.76	75.76	0.04	0.04
Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.08	0.08	80.00	80.00	0.05	0.05
Fairfield	MAAC	0.08	0.08	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.08	0.08	37.93	37.93	-0.02	-0.02
Illinois	B10	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.08	0.08	43.75	43.75	-0.01	-0.01
Howard	MEAC	0.08	0.08	25.81	25.81	-0.04	-0.04
Cincinnati	Amer	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.07	0.07	15.62	15.62	-0.05	-0.05
Rutgers	B10	0.07	0.07	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Gonzaga	WCC	0.06	0.06	88.24	88.24	0.05	0.05
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.03	-0.03
NJIT	ASun	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Alabama	SB	0.06	0.06	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Drake	MVC	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Memphis	Amer	0.06	0.06	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.06	0.06	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
UMBC	AE	0.06	0.06	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Vermont	AE	0.06	0.06	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
UCF	Amer	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Old Dominion	CUSA	0.06	0.06	78.12	78.12	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Canisius	MAAC	0.06	0.06	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.06	0.06	23.08	23.08	-0.03	-0.03
Idaho St.	BSky	0.06	0.06	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Colorado	BSky	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.06	0.06	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Utah St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Montana St.	BSky	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Iowa	B10	0.05	0.05	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Florida	SEC	0.05	0.05	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kansas	B12	0.05	0.05	79.41	79.41	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.05	0.05	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
New Orleans	Slnd	0.05	0.05	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.05	0.05	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.02	-0.02
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.05	0.05	44.12	44.12	-0.01	-0.01
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Arkansas St.	SB	0.05	0.05	30.00	30.00	-0.02	-0.02
East Carolina	Amer	0.05	0.05	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Niagara	MAAC	0.05	0.05	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Duquesne	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
South Florida	Amer	0.03	0.03	31.25	31.25	-0.01	-0.01
Air Force	MWC	0.03	0.03	34.48	34.48	-0.01	-0.01
North Texas	CUSA	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
Abilene Christian	Slnd	0.03	0.03	44.44	44.44	-0.00	-0.00
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Penn	Ivy	0.03	0.03	74.19	74.19	0.01	0.01
San Jose St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	10.34	10.34	-0.02	-0.02
Long Beach St.	BW	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Utah	P12	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Wagner	NEC	0.03	0.03	70.00	70.00	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Dayton	A10	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Little Rock	SB	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Fordham	A10	0.03	0.03	29.03	29.03	-0.01	-0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Mercer	SC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Miami FL	ACC	0.03	0.03	70.97	70.97	0.01	0.01
Middle Tennessee	CUSA	0.03	0.03	76.67	76.67	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.03	0.03	75.00	75.00	0.01	0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Pepperdine	WCC	0.03	0.03	16.13	16.13	-0.02	-0.02
Providence	BE	0.03	0.03	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
TCU	B12	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
UMass Lowell	AE	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.03	0.03	93.94	93.94	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Xavier	BE	0.03	0.03	84.85	84.85	0.02	0.02
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00